EXPLORING THE PARADOX OF POPULATION GROWTH AND FOOD RESOURCES IN PUNJAB – PAKISTAN: REASSESSMENT IN THE LIGHT OF MALTHUSIAN THEORY

: The correlation between population growth and economic development has been a persistent subject of inquiry among demographers and development economists. While some academics assert that population growth impedes economic development, others contend that it is advantageous due to the expansion of the workforce. Thomas Robert Malthus posited that population increases surpass the growth of food resources, resulting in food shortages and a diminished standard of living. The Neo-Malthusian theory advocates for the implementation of population control measures. This research delves into the connection between population growth and economic development in Pakistan, examining the validity of Malthus' assumptions. As the sixth most populous country with limited land area, Pakistan's largest unit, Punjab, holds a substantial portion of its population and food production. Through the analysis of data spanning from 1971 to 2017, despite experiencing a rapid population growth rate of 2.4% in 2017, a positive association between population growth and food resources was identified throughout the studied period.


INTRODUCTION
Food is vital for human survival, obtained through diverse means, such as agriculture, an ancient practice that remains significant for many countries.Pakistan's economy and population are closely intertwined.The agrarian economy of Pakistan, attributed to perennial rivers, faces challenges from rapid population growth, ensuring food security a complex venture.Pakistan is striving for self-sufficiency and food prosperity, yet natural events like floods or water shortages often result in food shortages that must be met by imports (Elahi, 1957).
Pakistan's population almost doubled in the first half of the 20th century, from 16.6 million in 1901 to 32.5 million in 1947.In the next 50 years, it grew to around 150 million by 2000.According to the population census 2017, the total population of Pakistan was 207.8 million, growing at around 2.4% annually.In 1998, it was 132.352 million with Annual Growth rate of the region was 2.45.The 1981 census recorded 84.2 million whereas 1972 Pakistan had 65.3 million people, growing at 3.7%, higher than 1981's 3.1% (Arshad et al., 2021;Gondal, 2021;Wazir and Goujon, 2021).This tremendous population growth is continuously exerting remarkably greater pressure on food resources, making it difficult to maintain a fair food supply level for a fast-growing population (Tian, 2023).In the early 1980s, Pakistan achieved near selfsufficiency in wheat, as in the 1970s when wheat imports dropped to just 5% less than domestic production.Yet, maintaining this level became challenging due to unpredictable conditions, exacerbated by the high population growth rate.Other food resources are also affected (Petter, 1985).
Pakistan is a land of subsistence agriculture having almost 62.10% of its rural population directly engaged with agriculture.Pakistan's total land area is about 79.61 million hectares.With over 2% of the world's population, Pakistan ranks 6th in population growth and 43rd in the global economy, yet occupies only 0.6% of the world's land.Classified as an N-11 nation, it has the potential for future economic growth.Its large population faces poverty, malnutrition, inadequate healthcare, education facilities and extremely bad housing conditions (Khalid & Khalid, 2014).
The conditions outlined above make it necessary to investigate population growth and its effects on Pakistan's economic growth.The economy of Pakistan depends upon agriculture, industry and services which is 24.7 %, 19.1 % and 56.3%, respectively.But as this study carries the influence of Malthus theory, which is about population stress on food resources, only the agricultural sector is selected to represent Pakistan's economic growth.Agriculture is the largest sector of Pakistan's economy, which employs about half of its labour force, or 45%.It contributes 21.4% of GDP and also significantly contributes to export earnings.Many notable changes have taken place in this sector since 1947.Its GDP share has declined from 53.2% in 1949-50 to 21.4% in 2011-12.The declining trend in agriculture's share of GDP shows that progress in this sector has been slower than in other sectors of the economy, particularly manufacturing.In contrast, the growth rate trend of agriculture yield is around 2.9 % per annum with variations from 5.6% to 6.5% during the last 66 years.Malthus theory deals with the relationship between population growth and food production, believing that food supply suffers from inelasticity and determines the size and increase of the population.The main objectives of the study are as follows:  To find out the relationship between population growth and food supply in Pakistan. To investigate the validity and influence of Malthusian theory in Pakistan.
Study Area: The present study, in order to examine Pakistan's Economic growth in relation to its food resources under the influence of Malthusian theory, due to shortage of time and lack of data availability, Punjab the driving territory of Pakistan both in terms of population and agribusiness has been chosen (Fig. 1).The Punjab "The land of five rivers" is also known as the agricultural heartland of Pakistan (Khan, 2020).It is the most progressive province of the country with respect to economy.It leads the other provinces by producing 75.6 per cent of the country's wheat, 59 percent of its rice, and 67 percent of its total food production and 72 percent of its sugarcane.However, 52.9 percent of the country's total population lives in Punjab, which had a population growth rate of 2.1 percent per annum growth rate during 2017 (Khalid & Khalid, 2014).
Punjab has a huge share in Pakistan's agricultural production, occupying 25.8 percent of the country's area with 52.9 % of country's population situated in the north-eastern part of the country.Conscious of the severity of the situation, the government is making every effort to bring down the population growth rate and increase the food production.So, it is necessary to analyse the population growth and its impact on food supply on a regional basis.

METHODOLOGY
Data Collection: This research's primary foundation for information was derived from secondary data sources.Specifically, to ascertain the population dynamics of Punjab, data was meticulously extracted from diverse census reports.These reports, spanning different periods, provided a comprehensive and historical perspective on regional population trends.Moreover, to facilitate the spatial analysis component of the study, a remotely sensed image of the study area was procured.This imagery, crucial for understanding the spatial distribution and patterns, was sourced from the US Geological Survey website.The US Geological Survey is renowned for its repository of high-quality geospatial data, making it a reliable and valuable resource for obtaining remotely sensed images suitable for detailed spatial analyses.

Study Design:
The study was grounded in a mixedmethods research approach, signifying a deliberate and comprehensive strategy that integrated qualitative and quantitative research methodologies.This methodological choice aimed to capture the richness and complexity of the research topic by leveraging the strengths of both qualitative and quantitative data.Based on the available data of the districts of Punjab since 1971, 22 districts were selected.

Descriptive Statistics:
The initial phase involved the generation of descriptive statistics specific to the spatial dataset.The raw data obtained from the secondary sources, was first arranged in tables according to the need and the objectivity of the current study.The time series data regarding population  and food production  of the study area was then further processed to find the annual and average growth rate (AGR and AAGR) by using the following formulas; Where  P start is the value at the start of the period. P end is the value at the end of the period.
In order to find the statistical difference of the AGR and AAGR of population and food production onesample t-test was performed by using Graphpad Prism 5.  = ̅ −  √ (3) Where  ̅ is the sample mean. μ is the hypothesized population mean. s is the sample standard deviation. n is the sample size.

Spatial Data Analysis:
The study acquired a remotely sensed image from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to initiate the spatial analysis component.This image, chosen for its high-resolution and comprehensive coverage of the study area, served as the foundational dataset for further investigation into spatial dynamics.Following the data acquisition, interpolation analysis was executed using ArcGIS software, specifically version 10.8.This analytical process involved estimating values for unobserved locations within the study area based on the known values from observed locations.In ArcGIS, interpolation techniques were employed to generate spatially continuous surfaces, allowing for a more detailed understanding of the distribution patterns.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The results cover the population trends and annual growth rate, food production and annual growth rate and their comparisons in the selected Punjab's districts from 1972 to 2017.Regarding the population trends, diverse demographic changes were observed.Rawalpindi experienced substantial growth, reaching 5.4 million with a 2.09% annual growth rate, indicating notable urbanisation and development.Lahore's population soared from 2.6 million to 11.1 million at a 3.30% annual growth rate (Appendix -1), suggesting an influx linked to economic opportunities and urban amenities as concluded by Hunter et al., 2005, Opoko and Oluwatayo, Saint and Lori, 2009, 2014, Turok, 2012. Zhang and Liu, 2023.In contrast, Sahiwal showed marginal growth, declining to 2.5 million with a -0.06% annual growth rate, potentially influenced by migration or limited economic growth, as concluded by Lorenzen et al., 2020, Manashe and Bocquier, 2021, Zhong et al., 2023.Overall, districts exhibited varying population dynamics, reflecting a complex interplay of regional influences and socio-economic factors across Punjab.
Figure 2 provides a detailed overview of food production trends in the study area spanning the years 1971 to 2017.Notably, Bhakkar, Vehari, and Bahawalnagar emerge as areas with substantial and consistent growth in food production.Bhakkar, in particular, experienced a remarkable surge from 223 thousand tonnes in the period 1971-80 to an impressive 1,366 thousand tonnes in the later period of 2011-17.This surge corresponds to an extraordinary annual growth rate of 5.13%, highlighting Bhakkar's significant contribution to the overall increase in food production.Conversely, Rawalpindi and Sahiwal exhibit less pronounced trends, characterised by fluctuations and marginal growth.Rawalpindi, for instance, witnessed a decline from 1,546 thousand tonnes in 1971-80 to 648 thousand tonnes in 2011-17, accompanied by a negative average growth rate of -0.01%.These contrasting patterns underscore the regional heterogeneity in food production dynamics within the study area.nThecumulative food production for Punjab as a whole demonstrates an impressive escalation from 17,927 thousand tonnes in the initial period of 1971-80 to a substantial 74,099 thousand tonnes in the later period of 2011-17.This indicates a noteworthy average growth rate of 0.07%, emphasising Punjab's significant role in contributing to the overall increase in food production.These findings align with similar results reported in studies conducted by Arshad et al. (2021), Janjua et al. (2021), Khan et al. (2022), Shah and Khattak (2022), and Shahzad and Amjad (2022).The consistency across multiple studies reinforces the robustness and reliability of the observed patterns in food production dynamics within the study area.The collective evidence presented in these studies underscores the need for nuanced analyses that consider regional variations and growth trajectories, contributing valuable insights to the broader discourse on the relationship between population growth and food resources in Pakistan.

Figure 2: Food Production from 1971 to 2017 and Annual Growth
Figure 3 presents a comprehensive overview of population and its growth in the study area, offering valuable insights into the dynamics of food production and demographic changes.Notably, Bhakkar emerges as a standout case, showcasing an exceptional annual food production growth rate of 5.13%, which significantly surpasses its population growth rate of 0.41% (refer to Fig. 2).This distinctive pattern suggests that Bhakkar has managed to achieve substantial agricultural productivity despite a relatively slower population growth rate.
In contrast, Sahiwal presents a contrasting scenario, exhibiting minimal food production growth (0.66%) despite experiencing a marginal decline in population (-0.06%).This indicates a decoupling of food production and population dynamics in Sahiwal, highlighting the presence of other influential factors affecting agricultural output.Mianwali, on the other hand, demonstrates a noteworthy correlation (P=0.126) between higher food production and population growth, unlike most other districts and Punjab's total, where no significant relationship is observed (P=0.151)(refer to Appendix -3).This implies that Mianwali agricultural output is more closely tied to its population growth compared to other regions in the study area.These findings underscore a lack of a direct and uniform correlation between food production and population growth across Punjab's districts, in line with results reported by Abbas et al. (2022), Khushi et al. (2020), Atif et al. (2020), and Siddiqui and Shirazi (2023) in their respective studies.
The lack of a straightforward relationship suggests the influence of multifaceted factors beyond population dynamics on regional agricultural output.These factors may include technological advancements, agricultural practices, climate conditions, infrastructure development, and policy interventions.The complexity of the relationship between population growth and food production highlights the need for nuanced and contextspecific analyses to understand the underlying factors driving agricultural outcomes.These results contribute valuable insights to the broader discourse on the intricate interplay between demographic changes and agricultural productivity within the studied regions of Punjab.
Comparing the available food (crop production) per person/year in the districts of Punjab, Faisalabad stands out with a substantial increase in available food per person, rising from 381 kg/person in 1971-1980 to 396 kg/person in 2011-2017, despite a significant surge in population from 4.2 million to 7.9 million during the same period.Conversely, several districts, such as Rawalpindi, Jhelum, or Multan, indicate no significant change in available food per person despite population growth.Notably, districts like Attock, Bhakkar, and Sahiwal exhibit a minor increase in available food per person but fail to reach statistical significance (Appendix -4).Overall, while some districts portray marginal improvements in food availability concerning population growth as indicated by Ahmed and Faridi, 2020;Haq et al., 2021;Munawar et al., 2021;Shah et al., 2022), a majority of districts in Punjab display relatively stable food production per capita despite fluctuations in population figures (Khan, 2020;Nadeem et al., 2022;Salam and Hameed, 2022).Urbanisation and economic opportunities drive substantial population growth in districts like Rawalpindi and Lahore, contrasting with Sahiwal's marginal growth potentially influenced by migration or limited economic development.Concurrently, the agricultural landscape showcases diverse trajectories, with Bhakkar, Vehari, and Bahawalnagar experiencing significant growth in food production, emphasising the dynamic nature of Punjab's agricultural sector.Intriguingly, the comparison of food production and population growth reveals varied patterns across districts, with Faisalabad standing out in achieving increased food availability per person despite population growth.However, several districts display relatively stable food production per capita despite demographic fluctuations.The results negate the Malthusian theory who argued that the human population grows more rapidly than the food supply as the trends shown in fig. 4. It is evident from the present study that with the increasing population, food resources also increase due to mechanisation and intensification in agriculture sector.Furthermore, these findings underscore the complexity of the relationship between population dynamics and agricultural output in Punjab, urging further nuanced exploration for effective policy interventions to enhance food security and sustain agricultural productivity in the region.

Fig. 1 :
Fig. 1: Location Map of the Study Area.

Figure 3 :
Figure 3: Population Different Census from 1972 to 2017 and Growth