Evaluation of the Trends of Climate Variability During Different Crop Seasons in Dera Ghazi Khan

Abstract

Climate change is profoundly impacting ecosystems and disrupting agricultural systems by altering temperature and precipitation patterns, affecting crop yields and food production. This study evaluates the trends of climate variability during different crop seasons in Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan, focusing on temperature and rainfall fluctuations from 1991 to 2020. Climatic data were collected and analyzed, including monthly average temperature and rainfall. The analysis of mean monthly decadal temperature in the study area during the Rabi crop season showed significant fluctuations ranging from 20.04°C, 20.5°C, and 19.73°C in three corresponding decades. The mean monthly seasonal temperature was calculated 20.1°C. Similarly, during the Kharif crop season, notable variations across the mean decadal temperature ranging from 34°C to 34.91°C with mean seasonal temperature 34.6°C. Overall, in both seasons during the past three decades +0.1°C was observed with an annual increase of 0.003°C. All these values were found statistically significant. Mean monthly rainfall also exhibited remarkable variability, with statistically significant differences observed for most months in both Rabi and Kharif seasons, except for November and December in the Rabi season and June and October in the Kharif season. Overall, rain has decreased in the last 30 years to -0.4mm during Rabi and -3.7mm during Kharif seasons. The literature suggests that minor changes in climatic factors remarkably impact crop production. These findings highlight the dynamic nature of climatic conditions in the region and underscore the importance of understanding and adapting to climate change for sustainable agricultural practices.