GEOSPATIAL ASSESSMENT OF FLASH FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY IN CHAJ DOAB PUNJAB PAKISTAN

Abstract

The study area is positioned between the Jhelum and Chenab rivers. Such areas are flooded almost annually and with varying intensities. This research aims at using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Frequency Ratio (FR) models to formulate flash flood risk maps, applied within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework. Eight physical parameters that may influence flash floods were incorporated together using a weighted overlay, where drainage density received the highest influence. The outcome categorizes the area into five flood risk zones, which are "very low risk," "low risk," "moderate risk," "high risk," and "very high risk." About 1,268 km² or 9% of the total area is included in the "very high risk" category. Mangla, Marala, and Trimmu valleys proved to be the most vulnerable zones, having been devastated by flash floods in the past. This study provides critical insights and policy recommendations for risk managers, emergency response teams, hydrologists, and climate scientists to enhance disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts.