IMPACT ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ON THE RABI CROPS AND GREEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN SWAT VALLEY OF PAKISTAN

Abstract

This study presents an estimate of the impact of climatic variables on Rabi crops and green economic development in Swat valley, Pakistan. A statistical analysis was used to estimate the impact of climate on Rabi crop production for the period of 1981-2013. The unit root test, covariance analysis and Johansson Co-integration tests were used to estimate the short-term and long-term impact
of independent variables on Rabi crop production. The results showed that three independent variables were significant at 10 % and dependent variable as at 1 %. The R 2 value 0.82 indicated that 82 % variation in Rabi crop production is explained by the modeled variance and the combined effect of the independent variables. Moreover, temperature and rainfall during the Rabi season have the negative impact on the production of Rabi crops (Wheat and Barley) in the Swat valley. Overall analysis indicates that crop production in Swat valley is most affected by local climate. It was concluded that the development of a water conservation framework and availability of the fertilizers at the local market would promote sustainable Rabi crop production in the Swat valley.