IMPACTS OF RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ON WHEAT PRODUCTION IN DISTRICT BAHAWALNAGAR, PAKISTAN FROM 1983-2016

Abstract

In Pakistan, wheat is the principal food crop contributing 2.8 GDP in country’s economy. For wheat production different factors are responsible, one of them is climate. This study has been carried out in Bahawalnagar, lying in arid zone of Punjab, to investigate the impact of year to year changes in meteorological parameters like rainfall and temperature on wheat production during the wheat cropping season i.e. November-April. This study focused to find out the impact of variation in temperature and rainfall on wheat production. Multiple linear regression model was applied to check out the relationship between the dependent (production) and independent (rainfall, temperature, area) variables. A significant regression equation was found with R
2 of .946, thus explaining 94% variance in the response variable. The model was also tested through ANOVA and the significance of p-value was .000. Results concluded a strong denial of relationship of temperature and rainfall variability with wheat production in Bahawalnagar, however a strong relationship between area under cultivation and wheat production nwas identified.