TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF LAHORE, PAKISTAN

Abstract

The impact of temperature change has been analyzed which has diverse effects on global, regional, and local scale. It is a significant step for planning climate change strategy. This research aims to investigate temperature trends on seasonal and annual basis for five decades (1962- 2012) of Lahore metropolitan area (LMA) which covers an area of about 2306 sq. km. In order to detect trends in temperature time series, linear regression test of parametric statistics has been applied. Temperature variables included mean (MAT), mean maximum (MMxT), and mean minimum (MMiT), which were considered for analyzing both on annual and seasonal basis. Anomalies of temperature were plotted and it was observed that percent of annual mean temperature, and mean minimum temperature were increased at the rate of 2.5 and 5.5 percent per year, respectively. While, Mean Maximum temperature had decreased at the rate of 0.6 percent a year. Each year was divided into four seasons, (a) winter, (b) hot-dry spring, (c) monsoon and (d) post-monsoon. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons, showed an increasing temperature trend during eight months of year except in June to September where non-significant
temperature trends were observed.